King Arthur has two equally wise advisers – Merlin and Percival. Each of them finds the correct answer to any question with probability \(p\) or an incorrect answer, with probability \(q = 1 - p\).
If both counsellors say the same thing, the king listens to them. If they say opposite things, then the king chooses a solution by tossing a coin.
One day, Arthur thought about why he had two advisers, would one not be enough? Then the king called for his counsellors and said:
“It seems to me that the probability of making the right solutions will not decrease if I keep one adviser and listen to him. If so, I must fire one of you. If not, I’ll leave it as it is. Tell me, should I fire one of you?”.
“Who exactly are you going to fire, King Arthur?”, asked the advisers.
“If I make the solution to fire one of you, I will make a choice by tossing a coin”.
The advisers went to think about the answer. The advisors, we repeat, are equally wise, but not equally honest. Percival is very honest and will try to give the right answer, even if he faces dismissal. And Merlin, honest about everything else, in this situation decides to give such an answer with which the probability of his dismissal is as low as possible. What is the probability that Merlin will be fired?