Problem #WSP-000407

Problems Probability and statistics

Problem

Some doctors make a new test for the disease ‘mathematitis’ which is even better. This new test is 99.9% accurate - meaning that 99.9% of the time when someone has the disease, the test will say so. And when someone doesn’t have the disease, 99.9% of the time the test will say that they don’t have it.

Paul goes to the doctor and test positive for mathematitis. What’s the chance he actually has mathematitis? Recall that 1% of the population has mathematitis.