One day in autumn the Scattered Scientist glanced at his ancient wall clock and saw that three flies fell asleep on the dial. The first one slept exactly at the 12 o’clock mark on the clock, and the other two just as neatly settled on the marks of 2 hours and 5 hours. The scientist made measurements and determined that the hour hand does not threaten the flies, but the minute one will sweep them all in turn. Find the probability that exactly 40 minutes after the Scientist noticed the flies, exactly two flies out of three were swept away by the minute hand.
On one island, one tribe has a custom – during the ritual dance, the leader throws up three thin straight rods of the same length, connected in the likeness of the letter capital \(\pi\), \(\Pi\). The adjacent rods are connected by a short thread and therefore freely rotate relative to each other. The bars fall on the sand, forming a random figure. If it turns out that there is self-intersection (the first and third bars cross), then the tribe in the coming year are waiting for crop failures and all sorts of trouble. If there is no self-intersection, then the year will be successful – satisfactory and happy. Find the probability that in 2019, the rods will predict luck.